Here are the stats for Penn State and Northwestern from the NCAA site:
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| NCAA Stats Comparison | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category: | Penn St. | Northwestern | Delta |
| Rushing | 52 | 40 | -12 |
| Passing Offense | 81 | 68 | -13 |
| Total Offense | 78 | 52 | -26 |
| Scoring Offense | 96 | 62 | -34 |
| Rushing Defense | 22 | 76 | 54 |
| Turnovers Gained | 10 | 50 | 40 |
| Passes Had Intercepted | 64 | 8 | -56 |
| Pass Defense | 7 | 99 | 92 |
| Net Punting | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| Punt Returns | 75 | 13 | -62 |
| Kickoff Returns | 32 | 68 | 36 |
| Turnover Margin | 20 | 17 | -3 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 33 | 67 | 34 |
| Passes Intercepted | 7 | 37 | 30 |
| Fumbles Lost | 70 | 14 | -56 |
| Turnovers Lost | 70 | 6 | -64 |
| Passing Efficiency | 102 | 36 | -66 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 3 | 108 | 105 |
| Total Defense | 6 | 101 | 95 |
| Scoring Defense | 6 | 88 | 82 |
| Fewest Penalties Per Game | 33 | 28 | -5 |
| Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game | 37 | 28 | -9 |
| Punt Return Yardage Defense | 65 | 6 | -59 |
| Kickoff Return Yardage Defense | 85 | 12 | -73 |
| Offense Third-down Efficiency | 73 | 20 | -53 |
| Offense Fourth-down Efficiency | 5 | 102 | 97 |
| Defense Third-down Efficiency | 32 | 114 | 82 |
| Defense Fourth-down Efficiency | 87 | 97 | 10 |
| Tackles for Loss | 32 | 96 | 64 |
| Offense Tackles for Loss | 6 | 94 | 88 |
| Pass Sacks | 48 | 77 | 29 |
| Pass Sacks Allowed | 18 | 102 | 84 |
| Time of Possession | 27 | 73 | 46 |
| First Downs | 74 | 29 | -45 |
| First Downs Allowed | 7 | 61 | 54 |
| Red Zone Efficiency | 91 | 91 | 0 |
| Red Zone Efficiency – Defense | 119 | 60 | -59 |
| Average NCAA Rank: | 47.78 | 59.3 | 11.52 |
| Weighted Avg. Rank: | 47.33 | 70.08 | 22.75 |
Unlike Purdue last week, whose weighted stats were considerably better than the straight up average, Northwestern is actually worse when key stats are weighted.
In the offensive categories, NW is ranked on average 21.25 spots better than PSU.
In the defensive categories of rushing, pass, pass efficiency, scoring and total defense, Penn State is ranked on average 85.6 spots BETTER than the Wildcats.
Neither team performs well in the red zone. If it weren’t so sad I’d be laughing. And as good as our defense is, our red zone defense is tied for last in the country. It’s like the goal line is some weird electromagnetic force that creates havoc whenever our players get near it, whether they are on offense or defense. It’s creepy really.
But on the bright side, they can’t get any worse and there’s only one way to go from here.
My preseason countdown had this game ranked as our 6th most difficult game. Illinois was #7 and Iowa was #5. Here was my prediction:
I think Penn State will be 6-1 going into this game and building momentum. I look for a shaky start, a solid third quarter and pulling away with a win by at least 10 points. Don’t ask me why. It’s just a feeling I have. It might be gas.
I may be a fool, but I’m standing by that prediction, even though the line has us favored by 4. The best thing for a struggling offense is to face a struggling defense.
The Lion's Den 