Statistically Speaking: Illinois Edition

Here are the stats from the NCAA website for PSU and Illinois coming into this weekend:

table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}

NCAA Stats Comparison
Category: Penn St. Illinois Delta
Rushing 50 23 -27
Passing Offense 84 72 -12
Total Offense 76 45 -31
Scoring Offense 89 64 -25
Rushing Defense 19 19 0
Turnovers Gained 13 42 29
Passes Had Intercepted 48 48 0
Pass Defense 14 21 7
Net Punting 95 102 7
Punt Returns 79 116 37
Kickoff Returns 20 118 98
Turnover Margin 27 74 47
Fumbles Recovered 46 46 0
Passes Intercepted 6 44 38
Fumbles Lost 74 102 28
Turnovers Lost 66 90 24
Passing Efficiency 98 31 -67
Pass Efficiency Defense 5 42 37
Total Defense 8 10 2
Scoring Defense 5 15 10
Fewest Penalties Per Game 27 17 -10
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game 31 15 -16
Punt Return Yardage Defense 71 53 -18
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense 73 100 27
Offense Third-down Efficiency 73 13 -60
Offense Fourth-down Efficiency 4 118 114
Defense Third-down Efficiency 35 18 -17
Defense Fourth-down Efficiency 82 82 0
Tackles for Loss 25 6 -19
Offense Tackles for Loss 5 70 65
Pass Sacks 23 8 -15
Pass Sacks Allowed 14 106 92
Time of Possession 33 20 -13
First Downs 73 45 -28
First Downs Allowed 13 14 1
Red Zone Efficiency 87 34 -53
Red Zone Efficiency – Defense 117 44 -73
Average NCAA Rank: 46.16 51.00 4.84
Weighted Avg. Rank: 47.50 43.17 -4.33

The disparity between the straight up stats and the “weighted” stats, where key categories such as total offense or defense are given more weight than categories like fewest penalties per game, is again apparent this week.

Purdue was better in weighted stats than actual straight stats.  Northwestern was worse.  Illinois is again better when the stats are weighted.  Does that mean anything?

Well, the Illini lost to Purdue, whom we beat, and neither Northwestern or Purdue could win the most points on the scoreboard stat.

But neither of those teams was as close in the defensive categories to Penn State as Illinois is.  Pass efficiency defense is the only major defensive category that Illinois is not within 10 rank points or less of matching PSU.  Illionois leads PSU in all major offensive categories by at least 12 rank points.

We are very poor on third down efficiency on offense; Illinois is considerably better.

Overall, weighted or not, the two teams are closely matched on paper.

Penn State is favored by 5 in what appears to be a defensive clash.  And the weather appears to be cold and wet . . .

Okay, campers tailgaters, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties ’cause it’s cooooold out there today Saturday.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, football, Illinois, Penn State, statistics, weather

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s